The stock market started 2016 with one of the worst beginnings to a year history has ever seen. It was really panic time for investors who were treated to an endless barrage of negativity by anyone who could pick up a pen and write. TV anchors, analysts, journalists, and anyone else who had the ability to create a story pounded fear into the market.
And then on February 12 the market headed back up once again.
On June 23rd there was the brief fallout from the Brexit vote but the market recovered from that surprise within days. The disaster that was predicted by most pundits never happened.
And finally, September (which is historically the worst month of the year for stocks) was choppy but has now passed without any major damage to any of the market indexes.
It is Halloween month so let me present to you a selection of some of the scariest stock market predictions and warnings I could find from 2016:
Those are just a few of the articles predicting doom for stocks that anyone can find on the Internet. Many of those were written in the first half of 2016 but every month this year you can find examples like the ones above. Its been an endless train of negativity from many this year and yet the stock market has somehow managed to go up.
So, why does the stock market continue to stay strong in the face of the barrage “experts” saying it should go down? And how in the world is an everyday investor supposed to brush aside all the daily fear and continue to buy stocks? Don’t these big money players and analysts know more than any of us and why should I continue to buy stocks when a stock market crash is obvious to so many?
Well, those “experts” might be right eventually and there are still 3 more months left this year so 2016 could still end up being a disaster. And if not 2016 then 2017 could be the crash that everyone fears. But one thing I have learned in all my years of investing is that no matter how knowledgable someone seems to be or how much money they have to invest, they are just human and they don’t know the future. NO ONE can predict a stock market crash with certainty. In closing here is a list of all the people who cannot accurately forecast markets:
1. hedge fund managers
2. Wall Street’s top strategists
3. technical analysts
6. newsletter writers and book authors
8. financial advisors
9. your dentist
10. leading finance professors
11. famous economists
12. bloggers and columnists
14. horses who count with their hooves
16. value investors
17. investment clubs
18. message board aficionados
19. TV hosts
20. mutual fund managers
21. sell-side analysts
22. ETF companies
23. institutions, pensions and endowments